拧紧螺栓:新冠疫情与国际政治

The Turn of the Screw:the Great Pandemic and International Politics

新冠疫情背景下的国际政治僵局已经形成,“螺栓”正在被拧紧,看不到可行的出路。在疫情肆虐的当下,权力均衡以及相关的概念框架已不再稳固。世界秩序的危机加速上演,其特点是大国冲突再度出现和国际政治开始重回两极结构,其中的一方是美国及其盟友,另一方是中国和与它相联合的国家。中国当然不赞成集团政治的理念,但是随着对抗升级,对该理念的拒斥可能会使中国付出失去盟友的代价。就像在“第一次冷战”中两极格局初始阶段所发生的那样,一些大国(印度、俄罗斯和其他国家)保留了一定程度的外交政策自主性,但是它们的行为越来越被中美对抗加剧所产生的权力场域所塑造。正如1914年之前“螺栓”被拧紧时那样,在当前的核时代,人类又面临着挑战,需要寻找一条摆脱大国对抗、避免战争的路径。

The coronavirus crisis of 2020 brought the world to a halt,with the screws tightening yet without any clear exit route.The pandemic struck at a time when the balance of power and associated ideational frameworks were already in flux.The intensifying crisis of world order was marked by the re-emergence of great power conflict and a nascent return to a bipolar structure to international politics,with the US and its allies on the one side,and China and those who align with it on the other.China,of course,repudiates the idea of bloc politics,but this conceptual rejection may cost it allies as the confrontation intensifies.As in the original period of the bipolarity in the First Cold War,certain major powers(India,Russia and some others)retain a degree of foreign policy autonomy,but their behavior is increasingly structured by the power field generated by the intensifying Sino-U.S.confrontation.Just as before 1914 the screws are tightening,but in the nuclear age humanity is challenged to find an exit path from great power confrontation that can avoid war.