大兴安岭蓝莓生长气候条件分析

Climate Conditions for Blueberry Growth in the Great Khingan

为了解1971—2014年大兴安岭地区蓝莓生长季平均气温的分布规律和变化趋势及对气候变化响应,利用大兴安岭地区6个气象站气温资料,采用EOF、小波分析和文献综述等方法,研究蓝莓生长季平均气温时空变化,主要气象灾害及其对气候变化响应。结果表明:大兴安岭地区蓝莓生长季平均气温呈增加趋势,周期变化存在28年和8年尺度;空间分布展现为第1特征向量正变化,第2和第3特征向量正、负相间变化;特征向量东南与西北变化相反,东与西也相反;气候变化将对蓝莓产生一定的影响,利弊均有。热量条件影响下蓝莓的气象灾害主要有寒害、霜冻和春季低温阴雨寡照天气并阐述发生情况及影响。研究结果可为确保蓝莓优质高产、避免灾害损失和科学规划提供理论参考。

To understand the distribution rule and trend of mean temperature of blueberry growing season and its response to climate change in the Great Khingan region from 1971 to 2014,the authors used the EOF,wavelet analysis and literature review to analyze the variation characteristics of mean temperature in blueberry growing season,the main meteorological disasters and their responses to climate change,based on the daily data of 6 meteorological stations in the Great Khingan region.The results showed that:there was an increase trend of mean temperature of blueberry growing season with 28 and 8 years scale periodic variation.The spatial distribution of the first eigenvector showed the positive trend,while the second and third eigenvectors showed the positive and negative trends,the change of eigenvector was opposite in southeast and northwest,so was in west and east.Climate change had a certain impact on blueberry production,both advantages and disadvantages.The main meteorological disasters of blueberry under the influence of heat conditions were cold damage,frost and low temperature,and rainy and few sunshine in spring,which were expounded by the occurrence and influence.The results could provide references for scientific planning to ensure high quality and yield of blueberry,and avoiding disaster losses.