陕西省粮食产量影响因素的灰色关联分析——基于面板数据的实证研究

Grey Correlation Analysis of the Influence Factors of Grain Yield in Shaanxi:Empirical Research Based on Panel Data

采用灰色关联分析法,将1999—2017年陕西省粮食产量划分为2个阶段,对2个时段的粮食产量10个影响因素进行动态分析,利用SAS统计软件实现灰色关联分析的数据处理,为提升陕西省粮食产能、增强粮食安全保障的主要途径提供数据支撑。结果表明,影响陕西省粮食产量的第一重要因素是粮食播种面积;有效灌溉面积、农村就业人数对粮食产量的影响逐渐增强;农药化肥减量增效势在必行,有较大提升空间。宏观层面上,自然因素仍是影响粮食产量的第一因素,科技因素对粮食产量的影响上升,最后是政策因素。加强耕地质量建设,稳定粮食作物播种面积,农药化肥精准施用减量增效,推广粮食绿色生产方式,是保障粮食安全的重要举措。

The grain yield from 1999 to 2017 in Shaanxi was divided into two stages and 10 influence factors of grain yield were analyzed dynamically with grey correlation analysis method,and the data processing was realized by SAS statistical software,aiming to provide data support for improving grain productivity and enhancing grain security in Shaanxi.The results showed that the most important factor affecting the grain yield in Shaanxi was the grain planting area.The effect of effective irrigation area and rural employment on grain yield was gradually enhanced.It was imperative to reduce the amount of pesticides and fertilizers and increase their efficiency.On the macro level,natural factors were still the first to influence grain output,the impact of scientific and technological factors was increased,and the last was policy factor.The important measures to ensure food security in Shaanxi are improving the quality of cultivated land,stabilizing the sown area of grain crops,reducing the amount and increasing the efficiency of pesticides and fertilizers,and promoting green grain production.