鲁中地区夏玉米主要生育期和产量对气候变化的响应

Responses of Main Growth Period and Yield of Summer Maize to Climate Change in Central Shandong Province

利用2017、2018年鲁中地区3个研究站点的气象数据,采用线性回归方法分析本地区夏玉米主要生育期及产量对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:各品种玉米营养生长阶段天数与总积温值呈极显著正相关(P <0.01),相关系数高达0.97~0.99,与总日照时数相关性不大,相关系数在0.41~0.70,与总降水量不存在相关性,相关系数在-0.02~0.38;各品种玉米生殖生长阶段天数与总积温值呈显著正相关(P <0.05),相关系数在0.80~0.95,与总日照时数和总降水量相关性不大,相关系数分别在-0.19~0.09、-0.04~0.41。2017—2018年玉米生育期没有重大自然灾害,产量波动与年际间气候条件相关性较小,不同年份之间产量变化不明显。不同地区应根据玉米主要生育期的变化选择适宜的品种类型。

Based on the meteorological data of three research stations in central Shandong Province in 2017 and 2018,the response law of main growth period and yield of summer maize to climate change was analyzed by linear regression method.The results showed that the days of vegetative growth stage of all corn varieties had significantly positive correlations with the total accumulated temperature(P<0.01),and the correlation coefficients were as high as 0.97~0.99;but they had little correlation with the total sunshine hours with the correlation coefficients as 0.41~0.70,and had no correlation with the total precipitation with the correlation coefficients as-0.02~0.38.The days of reproductive growth stage had significanly positive correlations with the total accumulated temperature(P<0.05)with the correlation coefficients as 0.80~0.95,but had little correlations with the total sunshine hours and total precipitation with the correlation coefficients as-0.19~0.09 and-0.04~0.41,respectively.There were no serious natural disasters in 2017-2018,so the fluctuations of maize yield had little correlation with the interannual climate.Among different years,the change of maize yield was not obvious.In different areas,suitable varieties should be selected according to the change of main growth period of maize.