基于健康安全的棕地再开发决策模型构建及模拟研究——以广东省F市为例

Simulation of a decision-making model for brownfield redevelopment based on health and safety:Case study of city F in Guangdong

为提高棕地再开发决策的科学性与安全性,以“建设用地准入机制”和“土壤环境质量标准”等为指导思想和标准依据,结合环境、经济、社会和地块特征等因素,构建棕地再开发决策指标体系及决策模型,运用模糊综合法对目标地块拟开发方向进行决策模拟。以广东省F市土壤环境质量调查和土地利用规划数据为基础,结合“三旧改造”规划方案,测算土壤污染程度,采用ArcGIS进行可视化安全评估,对目标地块再开发方向进行决策模拟,并以变动权重组合进行验证。结果表明:37%的棕地再开发方向需要修正,在各影响因子中,环境因素权重最大,地块特征其次,社会和经济因素最小。研究表明,模拟决策模型确定的土地分级分类风险管控措施对棕地再开发决策具有较好的指导作用。

There is a close relationship between potential soil pollution and human health in the redevelopment and utilization of brownfield.Based on the thought and quality standard of brownfield development and utilization in environmental fields such as"access mechanism of construction land"and"soil environmental quality standards",integrated the factors of environment,economy,society,and plot characteristics,this paper constructs a decision-making index system and model of brownfield redevelopment,and utilizes the fuzzy comprehensive method to simulate the redevelopment direction for target plots to improve its authenticity and safety.According to the soil environmental quality survey and land use planning data of F City in Guangdong Province,combined with the"three old transformation"planning scheme,the degree of soil pollution was calculated,and the visual safety assessment was carried out via ArcGIS.The decisionmaking simulation of the redevelopment direction of the target plot was implemented and the combination of variable weights was used to verify the simulation results.The results show that 37%redevelopment direction of brownfield needs to be revised.Among the influencing factors,the environmental factors had the largest weight,followed by plot characteristics,and the weight of social and economic factors was the smallest.The risk management and control measures of land classification determined by the simulation decision-making model can play a better guiding role in the decision-making of brownfield redevelopment.