摘要
通过估算2007-2017年中国11个行业的IFDI和OFDI有效汇率,研究人民币汇率水平、汇率波动以及汇率预期对各行业双向FDI的影响。结果表明,各个行业的IFDI有效汇率和OFDI有效汇率存在很大差异,且汇率因素对IFDI和OFDI的影响仅在少数行业呈现出一致性。人民币汇率升值对部分行业的IFDI有促进作用,而对多数行业OFDI有限制作用。人民币汇率波动增大,导致多数行业的IFDI增加而OFDI减少;人民币汇率升值预期对多数行业的双向FDI均具有促进作用。因此认为,中国大部分行业的双向FDI存在投资动机和汇率风险偏好的差异,多数行业对外直接投资中对汇率价格因素考虑不足。
Based on the OFDI and IFDI weights, this paper estimates the industry-specific effective exchange rate for China’s 11 industries, and then considers the effect of exchange rate level, volatility and expectation on the Chinese OFDI and IFDI activities in each industry for a period of 2007–2017. The empirical results argue that there is a big difference between the effective exchange rate based on the IFDI weights and the effective exchange rate based on the OFDI shares in every industry. And the impact of exchange rate factors on IFDI and OFDI is only consistent in a few industries. Furthermore, the research results show that Chinese RMB appreciation has a positive effect on Chinese inward FDI flows in some industries but it has a negative impact on Chinese outward FDI flows in most industries,higher exchange rate volatility can decrease Chinese OFDI while promoting IFDI, and exchange rate expected appreciation encourages Chinese outward and inward FDI flows. So, this paper argues that there are different investment motives and exchange rate risk preferences in Chinese outward and inward FDI activities in most industries. Besides,China should strengthen its supervision of the authenticity of IFDI and consider the market force in OFDI because of speculative behavior of Chinese IFDI in most industries and insufficient consideration of price mechanism in RMB exchange rate in OFDI.
作者
李艳丽
周值光
Li Yan-li;Zhou Zhi-guang
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期77-85,M0006,共10页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“人民币汇率预期、汇率波动与跨境资本流动研究”(批准号17BJY198)。