私人交通、城市扩张与雾霾污染——基于65个大中城市面板数据的实证分析

Urban Private Traffic,Urban Expansion and PM 2.5 Pollution:On Panel Data of 65 Large and Medium-sized Cities in China

从备受关注的私人交通因素切入,基于65个大中城市层面的面板数据,实证检验私人交通发展水平对城市雾霾污染的影响与作用机制。实证结果发现,大中城市的私人交通发展初期可以通过城市空间的扩张与城市交通网络建设的优化来抑制城市雾霾污染的加剧;但由于城市道路私人交通承载水平有限,城市私人交通发展与雾霾污染之间存在显著的正“U”形关系,私人交通发展水平对雾霾污染的抑制作用会随着私人汽车数量的不断上升而被削弱。基于上述结论,从完善私人交通发展、推进大中型城市空间合理扩张、促进产业结构升级以及提升利用外资的水平等方面提出了相关政策建议。

Starting from the private traffic factors,based on the panel data of 65 large and medium-sized cities,this paper empirically examines impact of urban private traffic and urban expansion on PM2.5 pollution.The empirical results show that in the early stage of development of private traffic in large and medium-sized cities,the PM2.5 pollution can be restrained by expansion of urban space and urban space construction optimization.However,due to the limited carrying capacity of private traffic on urban roads,there is a significant positive U-shaped relationship between the development of private transport and PM2.5 pollution owing to limited capacity of private traffic in cities.The inhibiting effect of private transportation on PM2.5 pollution will be weakened with the increasing number of private cars.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the aspects of improving private transport development measures,promoting the rational expansion of large and medium-sized cities,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and improving the level of foreign capital utilization.