减税、经济增长与财政可持续性——来自地方债务水平的证据

Tax Reduction,Economic Growth and Fiscal Sustainability:Evidence from the Level of Local Debt

减税背景下,使用债务率指标评估地方财政可持续性,机制分析表明,地方财政收支状况、转移支付、债务余额的动态递延是影响债务水平的主要因素,经济增长和国债利率水平是影响债务率收敛速度的重要因素。基于财政可持续性约束矩阵建立静态和动态模型,结果表明:减税总体上不利于地方财政可持续性,地方债务约束变动显著地正向影响了地方举债行为;转移支付制度下的预算软约束显著地不利于财政可持续,长期财政可持续性的关键在于经济增长和化解存量债务。对均衡状态不同方向的偏离,表明中国地方财政可持续性具有区域异质性特征,形成稳定且有计划的债务管理机制对于优化地方债务资源配置十分重要。

When using debt ratio indicators to assess local fiscal sustainability in the background of tax reduction,mechanism analysis shows that fiscal deficit,transfer payments,and dynamic debt balances are main factors affecting debt levels.However,economic growth and national debt interest rates are important factors affecting the rate of convergence of the debt ratio.This paper establishes static and dynamic models based on the fiscal sustainability constraint matrix.The regression results show that tax cuts are generally do harm to fiscal sustainability,and local debt constraints changed positively affect local borrowing behavior.The soft budget constraint under the transfer payment system is significantly detrimental to fiscal sustainability.The key to long-term fiscal sustainability lies in economic growth and the resolution of existing debt.Different deviations of equilibrium state indicate regional heterogeneity of local fiscal sustainability.Therefore,a stable and planned debt management mechanism is very important for optimizing the allocation of local debt resources.