内倾船型在横风横浪状态下的倾覆概率评估方法

A capsizing probability assessment method for an inward-leaning ship under cross-wind and waves

评估横风横浪状态下内倾船型的倾覆概率可有效预防内倾船型倾覆,提高内倾船型航行的稳定性。设计一种适用于内倾船型在横风横浪状态下的倾覆概率评估方法。首先设计船舶的运动状态方程,并引入4个不同的坐标系对其详细描述,计算出风倾力矩和波浪力矩,结合运动状态方程量化船舶的横摇运动,确定船舶的倾覆条件,使用蒙特卡罗方法得到倾覆概率的统计估计值,计算出置信区间,确定宽窄度的取值,完成内倾船型在横风横浪状态下的倾覆概率评估。为验证方法的准确性,在耐波性水池中设计了模拟实验。实验结果表明,在不同初稳性高度和风速下,设计的倾覆概率评估方法得到的倾覆概率都更接近真实结果。

The evaluation of the capsizing probability of the inner capsized ship can effectively prevent the capsizing of the inner capsized ship and improve the stability of the inner capsized ship.In this paper,a method is designed to evaluate the capsizing probability of the inner capsized ship under the condition of crosswind and wave.Firstly,the motion state equation of the ship is designed,and four different coordinate systems are introduced to describe it in detail,and the wind tilt moment and wave moment are calculated,combined with the equation of motion state to quantify the rolling motion of the ship,determine the capsizing conditions of the ship,use the Monte Carlo method to get the statistical estimate value of capsizing probability,calculate the confidence interval,determine the value of width and narrowness,and complete the capsizing probability evaluation of the internal capsizing ship in the state of cross wind and cross wave.In order to verify the accuracy of the method,a simulation experiment is designed in the water tank.The experimental results show that under different initial stability height and wind speed,the overturning probability of the designed method is closer to the real results.