基于危险性评估的福建省茶叶寒冻害保险费率厘定

Determination of premium rates for tea cold-frost damage in Fujian Province based on risk assessment

为了提高福建省复杂地形下不同风险区的茶叶寒冻害保险费率设计的合理性,首先利用福建省历年气象数据、茶叶产量和灾情资料,计算茶叶不同寒冻害等级的减产率和出现概率,以此确定不同县域的茶叶寒冻害保险纯费率及基准费率,再结合寒冻害危险性区划,确定不同风险区域不同触发条件下的区域保险费率。结果表明:福建省茶叶在极端低温4℃以下的保险触发条件下,西北部区域海拔200 m以下、200~600 m、600~900 m和900 m以上地域保险费率分别为1.4%、4.5%、7.2%和10.2%;东北部区域海拔200 m以下、200~600 m、600~900 m和900 m以上的地域保险费率分别为0.9%、2.6%、4.8%和6.4%;西南部区域海拔300 m以下、300~700 m、700~1100 m和1100 m以上的地域保险费率分别为0.5%、2.3%、4.0%和5.5%;东南部区域海拔300 m以下、300~700 m、700~1100 m和1100 m以上的地域保险费率分别为0.5%、1.9%、3.9%和5.4%。总体上看,区域保险费率随着地理位置北移和海拔高度的增加而增加,研究成果可为福建省茶叶寒冻害指数保险产品的设计提供费率精算的技术支持。

The aim of this study was to improve the rationale of the premium damage insurance rate design for cold-frost damage in tea plants from different risk areas in Fujian Province.In doing so,we first calculated the tea yield decrement rate,both grade and probability of cold-frost damage occurrence by using historical data,so as to determine the pure rate and benchmark rate of cold-frost damage insurance for tea within each county of Fujian Province.Then,we determined the regional premium damage insurance rates for the conditions of each risk area and different triggers,combined with the cold-frost damage risk zoning area.The results showed that under the trigger condition for tea plants damage in Fujian Province,i.e.,extremely low temperatures below 4℃,the regional premium damage insurance rates were 1.4%,4.5%,7.2%,and 10.2%,respectively,in the northwest area for<200 m,200-600 m,600-900 m,and>900 m altitudes.At the same time,the regional premium damage insurance rates were 0.9%,2.6%,4.8%,and 6.4%,respectively,in the northeast area for<200 m,200-600 m,600-900 m,and>900 m altitudes.The regional premium damage insurance rates were 0.5%,2.3%,4.0%,and 5.5%,respectively,in the southwest area for<300 m,300-700 m,700-1100 m,and>1100 m altitudes.Moreover,the regional premium rates were 0.5%,1.9%,3.9%,and 5.4%,respectively,in the southeast area for<300 m,300-700 m,700-1100 m,and>1100 m altitudes.In general,the regional premium damage insurance rate increased with latitude and altitude.These results can provide technical support for the actuarial calculation of the premium damage insurance rate in relation to the design of insurance products for the cold-frost damage index of tea plants in Fujian Province.