山东省粮食生产时空格局演变及安全评价

Spatial-temporal patterns variation of grain production and security evaluation in Shandong Province

采用重心迁移模型、探索性空间数据分析和波动指数等方法,对1995—2015年山东省粮食生产时空格局变化及粮食安全状况进行研究。结果表明:1)1995—2015年,山东省粮食总产经历了从波动下降到稳步上升2个阶段,而粮食单产整体呈上升趋势;在主要粮食作物中,小麦的总产量和播种面积占比最高,玉米次之,而甘薯和大豆占比呈持续下降的趋势;2)山东省粮食生产存在明显的空间差异,鲁西地区大部分县(市、区)已发展为全省主要粮食高产区,粮食生产重心向西迁移;粮食生产空间集聚态势增强,鲁西地区成为大规模稳定性热点,鲁北、鲁中山区以及鲁东沿海地区成为稳定性冷点;3)从粮食安全状况看,山东省粮食生产能力逐渐提高,粮食安全状况整体趋于好转,但粮食供给稳定性较差,形势依然严峻。

Based on the gravity center model,exploratory spatial data analysis and fluctuation coefficient method,the temporal and spatial patterns of grain production and the evaluation of grain security in Shandong Province from 1995 to2015 were examined.The results showed that:1)From 1995 to 2015,the total grain output experienced two stages from fluctuating decline to steady rise,while the grain yield per unit area showed an upward trend.Among the main grain crops,the wheat production and sown area accounted for the highest,followed by corn,while the area of sweet potato and soybean continued to decline.2)There were obvious spatial differences in grain production in Shandong Province.Most of the counties(cities,districts)in the west of Shandong Province developed into the main high-yield areas in the province.The barycentre of grain production shifted to westward.It is found that the spatial agglomeration range of grain production presented a strengthen trend.The grain production in the west of Shandong Province formed a large-scale stable hot spot,while the grain production in the north,central and east of Shandong Province formed a stable cold spot.3)From the perspective of changes in grain security,the grain production capacity is gradually improving;the grain security situation is generally turning for the better.However,the stability of grain supply is poor,so the grain security situation remains grim.