家庭人口结构、农用机械投入与土地流转——基于CFPS 2014和CFPS 2016数据

Family population structure,agricultural machinery input and land transfer—Based on the data of CFPS 2014 and CFPS 2016

基于CFPS 2014和CFPS 2016数据,运用二元Logit回归模型和中介效应模型实证分析家庭人口结构、农用机械投入对土地流转的影响。研究发现:非农化和老龄化显著影响土地流转、农用机械投入,农用机械投入在非农化对土地流转的影响中具有中介效应,农用机械投入在老龄化对土地流转的影响中具有中介效应。据此提出,应加快劳动力向非农转移以促进农民快速增收,推进农业生产技术革新以提高农业生产效率,从而提高土地流转效率,实现土地规模化经营。

Based on the data of CFPS 2014 and CFPS 2016,this paper applies the binary Logistic model to explore the influence of family population structure and agricultural machinery input on land transfer.The results show that non-farm employment and aging have a significant impact on land transfer and agricultural machinery input.Agricultural machinery input has a mediating effect between non-farm employment and land transfer.Agricultural machinery input has a mediating effect between aging and land transfer.Accordingly,the paper puts forward some countermeasures,such as speeding up the transfer of labor force to non-agricultural areas to promote the rapid increase of farmers′income,promoting the innovation of agricultural production technology to improve the efficiency of agricultural production,so as to continuously improve the efficiency of land transfer and realize the large-scale management of land.