海西地区短时强降水的本地预报方法研究

Study on the local forecast method of shortterm heavy rainfall in the west coast of the Straits

利用2007—2016年海西地区自动站资料、高空实况资料、地面实况资料及物理量场资料,分析海西短时强降水(小时雨量≥5 mm)年际、月际主要发生时段和落区、强度特征。研究总结海西地区发生短时强降水影响系统、概念模型、物理量指标,为今后预报海西地区短时强降水提供参考。

Based on the data of automatic station,high altitude,ground and physical quantity field in the west coast of the Strait from 2007 to 2016,the main occurrence time,falling area and intensity characteristics of short-term heavy rainfall(hourly rainfall≥5mm)in the west of the Strait are analyzed.This paper studies and summarizes the impact system,conceptual model and physical quantity index of short-term heavy rainfall in the west of the Strait,which can provide reference for the prediction of shortterm heavy rainfall in the west of the Strait in the future.