基于模糊集对分析的河湖水系连通风险评估

Risk Assessment of River and Lake System Connectivity Based on Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis

河湖水系连通是提高水资源统筹调配水平、改善水生态环境状况、增强自然灾害抵御能力的重要途径,对保障社会经济及生态环境的可持续发展具有重要意义;但同时也存在一些可能风险。为此,研究构建了包括水资源、水环境、水生态和水灾害4个子系统于一体的河湖水系连通风险评价指标体系,并建立了基于模糊集对分析的风险评价方法。就其对2018年太湖流域引江济太调水工程进行的应用结果表明,风险等级为较小风险,与实际情况相符。研究成果可为类似河湖水系连通风险评估研究提供参考。

The connection of rivers and lakes is an important way to improve the overall allocation of water resources,improve the aquatic environment,and enhance the ability to resist natural disasters.It is of great significance to ensure the sustainable development of a socio-economic and ecological environment,but there are also some possible risks.To this end,a river and lake system risk assessment index system including four subsystems of water resources,water environment,water ecology and water disaster is constructed,and a risk assessment method based on fuzzy set pair analysis is established.As an example,the method is applied in the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake Water Transfer Project in the Taihu Lake Basin in 2018,and the results show that the risk level of the project is relatively small,which is consistent with the actual situation.The research results can provide reference for the risk assessment research of similar river and lake water system connectivity.