定向降准能否有效缓解小微企业融资难?——来自银行微观数据准自然实验设计的证据

Can Directional RRR Cut Policy Effectively Alleviate the Financing Difficulties of Small and Micro Enterprises?--Evidence from Quasi-Natural Experimental Design of Bank Level Data

运用定向降准“精准滴灌”提高政策精准度,是近年来我国央行货币政策实施中的一个创新举措,但是对定向降准政策效果的评估并未达成一致结论。本文利用浙江省81家农商行(农信社、农合行)2012年1季度至2015年1季度的小微企业贷款季度数据,采用双重差分法的识别策略,分析定向降准政策对农商行小微企业信贷的影响和传导机制。研究表明,定向降准政策激励了农商行小微企业信贷投放,但农商行自身的盈利考核却起到反作用。进一步的分析表明,受益于定向降准政策的农商行所增加的信贷投放主要流向非国有小微企业,对国有小微企业贷款余额增加虽然是正向促进但并不显著。并且,定向降准实施后,农商行小微企业贷款不良率也显著增加。上述研究发现为全面认识定向降准政策提供经验证据,也为今后货币政策结构化创新和金融监管优化提供有价值的参考。

The use of directional RRR cut policy“precision drip irrigation”to improve policy accuracy is an innovative measure in the implementation of China’s monetary policy in recent years,but the study on the effect of this policy has not come to consensus.This paper studies the quarterly data of small and micro enterprise loans of 81 rural commercial banks in Zhejiang Province from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2015,using difference-in-difference method to estimate the impact and transmission mechanism of targeted RRR reduction in alleviating the financial difficult of small and micro enterprises.The research shows that the targeted RRR cut policy has stimulated the credit supply of small and micro enterprises in rural commercial banks.However,the profitability requirements of the rural commercial banks are counterproductive.Further research shows that banks that benefit from the targeted RRR reduction policy have increased credit supply to non-state-owned small and micro enterprises,and meanwhile the increase supply to state-owned small and micro enterprises loans is not obvious.However,after the implementation of the targeted RRR cut,the bank’s small and micro enterprise loan non-performing rate has increased significantly.The above research findings provide empirical evidence for a comprehensive understanding of targeted RRR cut policies,and provide valuable reference for future monetary policy structural innovation and financial regulatory optimization.