“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设区域风险研究

Regional Risk Analysis of the Construction of 21st Century Marine Silk Road

21世纪海上丝绸之路建设是推动国际合作、促进国际贸易、加快中国企业"走出去"步伐的重要举措。依据成熟的地理区域划分方式将21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线23个国家划分为4个不同区域,从自然资源水平、地理距离、人文环境及投资环境4个方面识别不同区域国家具备的地理特征——区域性和差异性;通过文献梳理和德尔菲法判断的结果构建风险指标体系,形成政治风险、政治意愿、民众风险、市场环境风险和企业经营风险等5个二级风险指标及18个三级风险指标,通过层次分析法对每个指标赋权,利用定性和定量相结合的方式评估沿线国家的风险值。由于各区域的不同特点、,风险来源存在明显差异,进一步深入剖析成因,为各区域发展提出切实可行的建议。

The construction of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is an important measure to facilitate international cooperation,promote international trade and accelerate the pace of"going global"for Chinese enterprises.This paper firstly classifies the 23 countries along the route into four regions according to a mature way of geographical division,and identifies the geographical characteristics of countries in different regions,namely regional and differential features,four aspects of natural resource level,geographical distance,humanistic environment and investment environment.Then a risk indicator system is constructed through literature review and experts’ judgements using the Delphi method.Each indicator is given a particular weight based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to further evaluate the risks of the countries along the route qualitatively and quantitatively.After analyzing the main risks,their sources and causes of different regions on the basis of regional characteristics,practical suggestions are finally proposed considering the actual situation of each region.