社会融资规模指标改进及其对经济传导的估算

The Improvement of Aggregate Financing of the Economy and the Estimation of its Influence

社会融资规模已成为我国重要的货币政策指标。通过对社会融资规模指标设计原则的梳理,提出应进一步将近年来影响日益增大的保险、租赁等金融产品纳入指标范围,以全面地反映金融机构对实体经济的支持。通过对比优化前后的指标数据,印证了优化后的指标可更好地反映货币政策。利用混频数据模型实证得出社会融资规模4~5个月就会产生传导效果,对经济产生显著的影响。

The scale of social financing has become an important monetary policy index in China.Through sorting the design principles of social financing scale index,it is proposed that because of their increasing influence in recent years,the index scope of insurance,lease and other financial products should be further included so as to comprehensively reflect the support of financial institutions to the real economy.The comparison of the index data before and after the optimization proves that the optimized index can better reflect the monetary policy.By using the mixed frequency data model,the empirical results show that the scale of social financing will have a transmission effect in 4 to 5 months which has a significant impact on the economy.