“一带一路”倡议是否促进了人民币国际化?——基于PSM-DID方法的实证检验

Has the“Belt and Road”Initiative Promoted RMB Internationalization?:An Empirical Test Based on PSM-DID Method

"一带一路"倡议是新时代我国实现全方位对外开放的顶层设计,为推动人民币国际化创造有利契机。为深入考察"一带一路"倡议对人民币国际化的影响,本文采用2009-2018年全球46个国家面板数据,运用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID),全面检验"一带一路"倡议对人民币国际化的影响,并剖析其影响机制。实证结果表明:"一带一路"倡议显著促进了人民币国际化发展;在"一带一路"倡议初期阶段,该倡议对人民币国际化具有显著推动作用,此后推动作用趋于减弱,2018年呈现出回升态势;"一带一路"倡议通过缩小贸易顺差、扩大对外投资等渠道,促进人民币国际化发展,但在金融市场对外开放渠道上,对人民币国际化的影响不够显著。最后,从共建"一带一路"、深化跨境贸易合作、扩大对外投资、促进金融市场开放等方面提出对策建议。

The"Belt and Road"initiative is a top-level design for China to achieve all-round opening up in the new era,creating a favorable opportunity for the internationalization of the RMB.In order to examine the impact of the"Belt and Road"initiative on RMB internationalization,this paper uses panel data from 46 countries in the world from 2009 to 2018,and uses the double differential propensity score matching method(PSM-DID)to comprehensively test the"Belt and Road"initiative for RMB and analyze its impact mechanism.The empirical results show that:first,the"Belt and Road"initiative significantly promotes the development of RMB internationalization.Second,in the early stage of the"Belt and Road"initiative,the initiative has significantly promoted the internationalization of RMB,and the role of initiative has weakened since then.In 2018,the driving effect rose again.Third,the"Belt and Road"initiative promoted the internationalization of the RMB by reducing trade surpluses and expanding foreign investment channels,but in terms of opening up the external financial market,the impact on RMB internationalization was not significant enough.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed in terms of advancing the construction of the"Belt and Road",deepening cross-border trade cooperation,expanding investment cooperation and promoting the opening of financial markets.