基于复杂适应系统理论的可再生能源广域互补规划方法

Renewable Energy Wide Area Complementary Planning for Multi-energy Power System Based on Complex Adaptive System Theory

针对多能源电力系统电源多点布局规划问题,综合分析了由风力发电、光伏发电、水力发电、传统火电、光热发电以及储能组成的多能源电力系统的出力特性,以互补性为侧重点,将电源优化规划与复杂适应系统理论相结合,提出一种基于复杂适应系统理论的多能源电源多点布局规划模型。该模型以各新能源电源为主体,通过主体间的交互以及经验的积累,不断变化其行为规则,调整各类电源的装机容量,求得各节点各类电源容量的最优布局方案。并且提出了一种基于简单规则涌现出复杂现象的主体建模方法,揭示了复杂适应系统理论的核心思想——适应性造就复杂性。以我国某地区实际电网为例,验证了所提方法对提高新能源的消纳有显著效果,并且基于该地区目前电源容量布局及未来的网架结构,给出了未来电源优化布局方案,对实际的工程建设有一定的指导意义。

Aiming at the problem of multi-point power supply layout planning for multi-energy power system,the output characteristics of the multi-energy power system composed of wind power generation,photovoltaic power generation,hydropower generation,traditional thermal power generation,solar thermal power generation and energy storage are analyzed comprehensively.Focusing on the complementarity among these different energies and combining the power optimization planning with the theory of complex adaptive system,a power source multi-point layout planning model for a multi-energy system based on the theory of complex adaptive system is proposed.Taking the power source of each new energy power supply as the main body and with the interactions and the accumulation of experiences between the main bodies,this model constantly changes its behavior rules,adjusts the installed capacities of the various types of power supply,and obtains the optimal layout scheme of all kinds of the power capacities for each node.In addition,an agent modeling method based on complex phenomena emergence with simple rules is proposed,which reveals the core idea of the complex adaptive system theory:adaptability creates complexity.Taking the actual power grid in a certain area of China as an example,the proposed method is verified to have a significant effect on the improvement of the new energy consumption.Based on the current power capacity layout and the future grid structure in this area,the future power optimization layout scheme is given,which has some-guidingsignificance-for-the-actual engineering construction.