面向新能源消纳的热水器负荷态势观测器模型

Water Heater Load Situation Observer Model of Renewable Energy Accommodation

需求侧具有能量存储特性的温控负荷对新能源的消纳利用具有重要意义。对温控负荷进行温度状态估计及可消纳量范围计算,可为合理规划新能源消纳任务提供依据。因此,提出了温控负荷群态势观测器模型,该模型基于横向时间维度的卡尔曼最优预测理论估计及纵向时间维度的改进增量调制方法修正,对负荷群下一时刻的温度分布状态进行估计,进而计算负荷群的可消纳能力。根据各负荷群的可消纳能力,通过模糊线性规划新能源消纳量,使负荷群的消纳任务更为合理,提高了新能源的利用率。最后,通过算例仿真验证了负荷群态势观测器模型及消纳能力计算的有效性。

Temperature controlled load with energy storage characteristics at the demand side is important for renewable energy accommodation.Temperature state estimation and accommodation range calculation of temperature controlled load can provide evidence for the planning of renewable energy accommodation tasks reasonably.Accordingly,a situation observer model of temperature controlled load was proposed to estimate the temperature distribution and calculate accommodation capacity at the next moment,which was based on Kalman optimal prediction theory to estimate in horizontal time dimension and improved delta modulation to correct in longitudinal time dimension.Renewable energy accommodation was planned according to the load group accommodation capacity using fuzzy linear programming,which rendered the accommodation tasks of the load group more reasonable and improved the utilization rate of renewable energy.Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed load group situation observer model and the accommodation range calculation.