摘要
基于2005—2019年中国马铃薯批发市场价格数据,运用Census X12季节调整方法和H-P滤波法对马铃薯批发市场价格波动开展研究;分析了马铃薯批发市场价格的年度波动、季度波动、月度波动以及波动周期特征,利用季节指数预测法对2020年中国马铃薯批发市场月度价格进行了预测;从供求关系、外部冲击和市场信息不对称等3个方面定性阐述了马铃薯批发市场波动的原因。最后,从加强马铃薯价格波动规律研究和建立波动预测信息发布机制等视角提出了加强马铃薯市场价格波动研究的政策建议。
Based on the wholesale market price data of potato in China from 2005 to 2019,Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filter method were used to study the wholesale market price fluctuation of potato.The characteristics of annual,quarterly,monthly and fluctuating cycle of potato wholesale market price were analyzed.The monthly wholesale market price of potato in China in 2020 was predicted by using the seasonal index forecasting method.The reasons for the fluctuation of potato wholesale market were qualitatively expounded from aspects of supply and demand relation,external shock and market information asymmetry.Finally,from the perspective of strengthening the research of potato price fluctuation rule and establishing the mechanism of releasing the fluctuation forecast information,some policy suggestions were put forward to strengthen the research of potato market price fluctuation.
作者
伦闰琪
罗其友
高明杰
杨亚东
Lun Runqi;Luo Qiyou;Gao Mingjie;Yang Yadong(Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing,100081)
出处
《农业展望》
2020年第8期30-40,共11页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y2018YJ26,Y2019ZK10,G202002-48、747)
中央农办、农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(20190206,2019KF116)。
关键词
马铃薯
价格波动
季节调整
H-P滤波法
价格预测
potato
price fluctuation
seasonal adjustment
H-P filter method
price forecasting
