面向科技安全的技术预见方法初探

A Preliminary Study on Technology Foresight Method for Science and Technology Security

长期以来,技术预见是世界科技发达国家开展技术发展中长期态势研判的重要手段。本文重点讨论面向科技安全的技术预见工作,借鉴风险评估领域的理念和方法,分析其与技术预见方法的异同,结合具体案例指出两者融合的可能性,构建结合风险评估的技术预见方法流程框架,并指出技术清单选择应遵循“迫切性、前瞻性、战略性、系统性、自主性”原则,设计了包含6个一级指标、29个二级指标的技术预见问卷评价指标框架,为面向科技安全的技术预见开展提供可行的技术路线。

How to evaluate science and technology security scientifically and effectively is of great significance to national strategic decision-making.This paper discussed a new method of integrating the technology foresight and risk assessment methodologies.We have analyzed the similarities and differences between the two method and pointed out the possibility of combining them.We proposed a technology foresight process framework,and pointed out that the technology topics list selection should follow the principle of“urgency,forward-looking,strategic,systematic and autonomy”.We have designed a questionnaire evaluation index framework which including 6 first-level indicators,and 29 secondary indicators.Our work provided a feasible technical route of doing the technology foresight faced to the science and technology security.