新型货币政策工具的理论功能与实证检验

Theoretical Function and Empirical Test of New Monetary Policy Instruments

本文基于供求均衡理论解析了新型货币政策工具的市场需求与管理供给调控机理,运用时变参数向量自回归模型进行实证检验,揭示了新型货币政策工具的“总量调控”、“价格牵引”及“结构优化”功能。研究结论显示:(1)新型货币政策工具疏通了货币政策传导进而推动了经济发展,对缓解实体经济下行压力有良好效应,发挥了货币供给总量调控功能。(2)新型货币政策工具对金融市场的资金价格具有影响力,对引导市场利率运行方向有明显作用,具有金融市场价格的牵引功效。(3)新型货币政策工具对贷款投向引导经济产出和结构有影响,通过金融市场投资结构调整,具有经济结构优化的功能。

This paper based on the equilibrium of supply and demand theory,analyses the market demand of the new monetary policy instruments and supply management regulation mechanism,using the Time-varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model(TVP-VAR)for empirical test,reveals that the new monetary policy instruments of"total amount control","traction price"and"structure optimization"function.The research results show that:(1)The new-monetary policy instruments facilitate the transmission of monetary policy and promote economic development,provide a positive effect on easing the downward pressure of the real economy,and play the role of regulating the total money supply.(2)The new monetary policy instruments have an influence on the fund price in the financial market,with an obvious effect on guiding the direction of market interest rate,and has the traction effect of the price in the financial market.(3)The new monetary policy instruments have an impact of the direction on loans to guide economic output and structure,and have the function of optimizing economic structure through the adjustment of investment structure in the financial market.