企业营运能力对信用违约的影响研究——基于KMV-Logit模型

Research on the Impact of Operating Ability on Credit Default--Based on KMV-Logit model

本文聚焦企业营运能力,基于信用违约理论定性分析公司营运能力对其违约可能性的影响,利用KMV-Logit模型定量分析营运能力对公司信用违约的影响程度。选取37家公司2017年财务及股价数据展开研究,探究营运能力与违约可能性之间的关系,从理论阐释和实证研究两个层面解读营运能力对公司违约概率的影响。

This article focuses on the company's operating capability,qualitatively analyzes the impact of a company's operating capability on its default probability based on the theory of credit default,and uses the KMV-Logit model to quantitatively analyze the impact of operating capability on the company's credit default.In view of the high return on investment of the luxury goods industry,it also has the characteristics of long operating cycle,slow inventory turnover,and large impact by the economic cycle.It is the hardest hit area for default risks.This paper selects 2017 financial and stock price data of 37 luxury goods companies to conduct research to explore the relationship between operating capability and the probability of default,and interpret the impact of operating capability on the company's default probability from two levels of theoretical interpretation and empirical research.