空间治理视角下的城市社会稳定风险评估与防控研究——基于S市河道整治工程的调查

A Study on the Risk Assessment and Prevention of Urban Social Stability from the Perspective of Spatial Governance:Based on the Field Research of River Regulation in City S

伴随着城市转型与功能升级发展,以公共利益为基点的公共政策面临着利益的再适配。多元主体的利益取向与行为在一定程度上挤压着空间正义,空间生产者和消费者之间的博弈易引发社会稳定风险的频发与异化。文章基于S市河道整治工程的实证调查,构建了社会稳定风险FTA事故树评估模型,计算最小割集、最小径集与结构重要度,获取引发社会风险事件的全部路径288条、高效防控措施15个。研究结果表明,舆情反馈机制、职能部门监管机制、应急管理机制等政策执行层面的行为是主要的风险致因。地方政府亟须转变执政理念,提升空间治理能力,吸纳公民、社会组织等多元主体进入风险治理防控体系,形成共建、共治、共享的社会治理格局。

With the development of urban transformation and functional upgrading,the public policy based on public interest is facing the redistribution of interests.The interest orientation and behavior of multiple subjects squeeze the spatial justice to a certain extent.The game between spatial producers and consumers is easy to cause the frequent occurrence and alienation of social stability risk.Based on the empirical investigation of river regulation project in City S,this paper constructs FTA fault tree assessment model of social stability risk,calculates the minimum cut set,minimum path set and structure importance,obtains 288 paths leading to social risk events and proposes 15 effective risk prevention and control measures.The result shows that the behaviors at the policy implementation level,such as public opinion feedback,regulatory actions of functional departments and emergency management are the main causes of social stability risk.It is clear that new requirements for space governance have been proposed.Therefore,government needs to change the concept of governance,improve space governance and absorb multiple subjects such as citizens and social organizations into the risk management system,thus forming a pattern of social governance constructed and shared by all.