中国体育产业结构优化的经济增长效应——基于2006—2018年时间序列数据的实证

The Economic Growth Effect of Sports Industry Structure Optimization in China——Empirical Study on Time Series Data From 2006 to 2018

随着体育产业供给侧改革的深入推进,体育产业结构优化升级将发挥重要作用,而探寻体育产业结构优化的经济增长效应,有利于更好地认识体育产业在助推国民经济中的作用。采用协整检验、误差修正模型等计量经济学方法,探析体育产业结构优化的经济增长效应。研究表明:1)体育产业结构优化与经济增长之间具有显著性相关关系(P<0.01);2)体育产业结构优化对经济增长的长期波动效应显著,即存在体育产业结构优化1%,经济增长0.7064%的互动关系;3)体育产业结构优化与经济增长不具有短期均衡关系,即存在体育产业结构优化对经济增长的短期波动效应不显著;4)体育产业结构优化对经济增长的影响有从短期波动效应不显著向长期波动效应显著转化。

With the deepening of the supply-side reform of the sports industry,the optimization and upgrading of the sports industry structure plays an important role,and exploring the economic growth effect of the optimization of the sports industry structure is conducive to a better understanding of the role of the sports industry in boosting the national economy.Using the econometric methods such as cointegration test and error correction model,this paper analyzes the economic growth effect of sports industry structure optimization.The results show that:1)there is a significant correlation between the optimization of sports industry structure and economic growth(P<0.01);2)The optimization of sports industrial structure has significant long-term fluctuation effect on economic growth,that is,there is an interactive relationship between the optimization of sports industrial structure of 1%and economic growth of 0.7064%;3)There is no short-term equilibrium relationship between the optimization of sports industrial structure and economic growth,that is,the short-term fluctuation effect of sports industrial structure optimization on economic growth is not significant;4)The influence of the optimization of sports industrial structure on economic growth is significantly transformed from the insignificant short-term fluctuation effect to the significant long-term fluctuation effect.