中部六省FDI影响因素适应性Lasso模型探析

Analysis on Main Influencing Factors of FDI in Central China with Adaptive Lasso Model

本文基于变量选择理论,运用适应性Lasso模型,选取中部崛起背景下2006-2017年中部六省的历史统计数据,探索影响中部六省外商直接投资的主要因素。结果表明:(1)中部崛起背景下,中部六省外商直接投资整体呈上升态势,存在明显的阶段性特征,其中"2008年世界金融危机爆发"是发展进程中的重要节点事件;(2)对影响因素深度剖析表明,集聚程度、经济发展水平、基础设施发展、政府效率对于吸引外资的作用明显。最后根据影响因素的强弱特征,给出了中部地区促进外商直接投资的相关建议。

Based on the theory of variable selection,this paper applies the Adaptive Lasso method to analyze the main factors of FDI in the six provinces of central China from 2006 to 2017 under the background of the rise of the central region.The results show that:(1)in the central China,foreign direct investment development presents growth overall,there are obvious phase characteristics."the 2008 world financial crisis"is the important event in the development process;(2)with the depth study of the influence factors,it manifested that industrial clusters effect,level of economic development,infrastructure conditions,government efficiency played evident role and industrial clusters effect far greater than the influence of other factors,the impact of labor cost,human resource,degree of market openness,technical innovation,industrial structure are not remarkable at the moment.Besides,the combined effect and influence among different factors drove the development of foreign direct investment in the central China.