我国省际人口负增长趋势的差异性分析

Difference of Negative Population Growth in the Provinces of China

文章基于中国大陆31个省区市1990-2017年人口历史数据和未来30年的人口预测数据,描述省际人口变动类型及其主要特征,分析未来不同生育水平条件下省际人口负增长趋势及其差异性。根据人口规模和结构变动趋势差异,我国省际人口变化趋势呈现波动型、减弱增长型和负增长型三种模式,人口年龄结构大致分为金字塔、菱形过渡和倒金字塔结构。整体而言,由于生育水平长期低于更替水平,积累了较强的人口负增长惯性,即使未来生育水平呈不断上升的趋势,各地区的人口负增长趋势也不可逆转,人口负增长时间到来速度、人口减少速度普遍较快成为其主要特征。但我国各地区人口负增长趋势仍存在较大的异质性和不确定性,从人口负增长到来的时间看,各省区市分为四个波次陆续进入人口负增长时代,对于中西部一些省区市,未来生育水平的提高能够较大的推迟人口负增长到来的时间;从人口负增长速度来看,那些生育率下降时间被极度挤压的地区其人口负增长到来速度和人口规模缩减的速度更快。未来少子老龄化加重、老龄化速度和程度的区域差异、劳动年龄人口比例持续下降将成为我国人口负增长时期面临的重大挑战。

Based on the population historical data of 31 provinces in China's Mainland from 1990 to 2017 and the population projection data in the next 30 years,this paper describes the types and main characteristics of provincial population changes,and the differences of future negative population growth and the characteristics of population structure in different fertility levels of the provinces.The results show that,according to the differences of population size and structure change trend,there are three patterns of population change in China:fluctuating,weakening growth and negative growth.The population age structure can be roughly divided into pyramid,rhombic transition and inverted pyramid.On the whole,because the fertility level is lower than the replacement level for a long time,it has accumulated a large momentum of negative population growth.Even assuming that the future fertility level will continue to rise,the trend of negative population growth is irreversible in most provinces.The arrival speed of negative population growth and the speed of population decrease are the main characteristics.However,the trend of negative population growth in various regions still has great heterogeneity and uncertainty.In terms of the arrival time of the negative population growth,the regions are divided into four waves to enter the era of negative population growth.For some provinces in the central and western regions,the improvement of future fertility level can greatly delay the arrival time of negative population growth.In terms of the speed of negative population growth,the arrival speed of negative population growth and the speed of population reduction are faster in those areas where the time of fertility decline is extremely squeezed.In the future,the aggravation of aging population with fewer children,the regional differences in the speed and degree of aging and the continued decline in the proportion of the working-age population will become an important challenge in the period of negative population growth.