东北地区未来人口变动对区域内住房需求的影响分析

Analysis of the Influences of Population Changes on the Future Housing Demands in Northeast China

中国东北地区具有鲜明的人口特征,这些人口特征影响区域内经济社会发展的方方面面,其中就包含对住房需求的影响。在获得2010年的人口普查数据和10%微观抽样数据的基础上,利用ProFamy方法,可以对未来区域内人口变动进行预测,进而预测分析由于人口变动而产生的住房需求变化(2010-2050年)。因为采用的微观数据是分省统计数据,鉴于各省微观数据的完整性不同,预测部分选择辽宁省作为东北地区的代表。人口预测结果显示未来区域内总人口数量下降,家庭规模进一步小型化,单人户数量显著增加。人口变动对住房需求的影响表现为:2010-2050年辽宁省农村地区的住房需求整体下降,城市地区的住房需求变化趋势表现为先升再降。城乡合计的地区住房需求总量部分表现为住房需求在2025年之前逐年上升,2025年之后逐年下降。可见,虽然区域内连续多年人口负增长,但人口变动对未来区域内住房需求的影响是使总需求增加。将未来住房需求变化按照年龄组划分,只有65岁及以上年龄组的住房需求是随着时间推移逐渐增加的,其他年龄组的总住房需求则逐年降低,人口老龄化起到增加区域未来住房需求的作用。2010-2050年男性单人户增加了62.62%,女性单人户增加了38.88%;单亲母亲与子女户数量增加了191.02%,而单亲父亲与子女户增加了109.75%。大量单人户和单身父母与子女户使城市中购买住房的单人户、单亲父母与子女户以及租赁住房的单亲父母与子女户数量逐年明显增加。

Northeast China has distinct demographic characteristics,these demographic characteristics affect all aspects of economic and social development in the region,such as future housing demand in the region.Base on the census data 2010 and 10%micro-census data,we got the forecasts of future population,and then got the forecasts of housing demands in Liaoning province(2010-2050).We cannot combine the micro data of 3 provinces to 1 and forecast base on it,so we choose Liaoning province as a representative of Northeast China.The results show that 2010-2050,population will decrease,the family size will be smaller,and one person only households will increase.In rural area,housing demands decrease years by years,in urban area,housing demands increase years by years at first,then decrease slightly.As a result,the total housing demands in Liaoning province increase years by years before 2025,then decrease years by years after that.Although the population declines for years,the total housing demands in Liaoning province increase any way.Total housing demands according age groups show different changes.Mostly,the demands of people in the three groups under age 65 decrease over time,but for people over age 65,the demands increase over time,the aging process in this province increase the housing demands.2010-2050,one male only households will increase by 62.62%,one female only households will increase by 38.88%,single mother live with their children households will increase by 191.02%,and single father live with their children households will increase by 109.75%.There will be a large number of single person and single parents,so in the city areas,there are more and more single person or single parents buy their own residences to live,or rent their residences to live with their children.This will increase the total housing demands.