中国城乡人口的婚姻匹配及其对初婚年龄的影响研究

Assortative-Marriage among Rural and Urban Population and Its Effects on the Age at First Marriage in China

初婚年龄关系结婚率、出生率以及人口结构等重大议题,是反映个体初婚特征的重要指标。进入21世纪以来,我国关于婚龄的政策保持不变,学界对初婚年龄的探讨开始重点关注社会经济特征、人群差异、多样化影响因素等,在现代化观念、经济高速发展以及婚姻市场结构变动的影响下,个体资源、择偶观念以及择偶标准均发生转变,夫妻之间的匹配程度对个体进入婚姻的影响愈发重要。本文通过利用2015年CGSS数据以及2018年全国百村调查数据,使用描述性分析、多变量回归分析等方法,试图揭示中国城乡人口初婚年龄的发展趋势与分布,进一步聚焦婚姻匹配对初婚年龄的影响。研究发现:中国初婚年龄持续攀升且城乡始终保持约2岁的差异;夫妻年龄差越大则男性初婚年龄越大、女性初婚年龄越小且不具城乡差异;跨户籍通婚的城市男性初婚年龄显著提前,跨户籍通婚的农村男女两性的初婚年龄均明显推迟;夫妻教育差越大对农村女性初婚年龄有显著推迟作用;婚姻成本与夫妻相对来源地对农村男性的初婚年龄具有显著影响。在男性婚姻挤压背景下,城市男性在婚姻市场依旧占有绝对优势,而农业户籍人口则面临较大的择偶困境。

This paper reveals the trends and distributions of age at first marriage in China among rural and urban population by using the 2015 CGSS data and 2018 hundred villages’survey data,and further focus on the effects of assortative-marriage on the age at first marriage.The results show that:In China,the age at first marriage continues to rise and the difference between urban and rural population is about 2 years old.The larger the age difference between couples,the older the male first marriage age,the younger the female first marriage age,and there is no urban-rural difference.In an inter-hukou marriage,the age at first marriage of men who holds an urban-hukou was significantly earlier,while the rural-hukou holders’age at first marriage was forced to postpone.Educational assortative-marriage(the larger the education difference between couples)has a significant effect on delaying the first marriage age of rural women.Marriage cost and the relative place of origin of husband and wife have a significant impact on the age at first marriage of rural men.In the context of male marriage squeeze,urban men still have an absolute advantage in the marriage market,while the rural-hukou population is facing a greater dilemma of mate selection.