甘肃省2005-2019年流行性乙型脑炎时空分布特征

Spatial-temporal distribution of Japanese encephalitis in Gansu province, 2005-2019

目的分析2005-2019年甘肃省流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病的时空聚集性。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2005-2019年甘肃省乙脑发病率数据,进行描述性流行病学分析、三维趋势分析、空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析。结果甘肃省2005-2019年共报告乙脑1525例,年均发病率为0.39/10万。三维趋势分析显示,甘肃省乙脑发病呈现由北向南、由西向东逐渐升高。全局自相关分析显示,2005-2012年、2013-2019年乙脑发病率Moran’s I值分别为0.589、0.652。局部自相关分析显示,2005-2012年、2013-2019年乙脑发病率分别有18个、31个高值聚集县区。时空扫描分析显示,2005-2012年和2013-2019年乙脑发病各扫描到1个一类时空聚集区,聚集时间分别为2006-2007年和2017-2018年,聚集区半径分别为189.05km、244.37km。结论甘肃省2005-2019年乙脑发病存在明显的时空聚集性,高发病区域和有病例报告地区有所扩大;应施行分区域、有重点、综合性的乙脑防控策略。

Objective To analyze spatial-temporal clustering of Japanese encephalitis(JE) during 2005-2019 in Gansu province. Methods We obtained JE incidence data during 2005-2019 in Gansu f rom the China Information System f or Disease Control and Prevention. We conducted descriptive epidemiological analyses, three-dimensional trend analyses, spatial autocorrelation analyses, and spatiotemporal scanning analyses. Results A total of 1 525 JE cases were reported during 2005-2019 in Gansu, for an average annual incidence of 0.39 per 100 000 population. Threedimensional trend analysis showed that the JE incidence in Gansu increased f rom north to south and f rom west to east. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed Moran’s I values of 0.589 in 2005-2012 and 0.652 in 2013-2019. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis found 18 and 31 clustering counties with high incidences in 2005-2012 and in 2013-2019, respectively. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis identified one class I cluster in 2006-2007 and another in 2017-2018, with the radius of clustering being 189.05 km and 244.37 km, respectively. Conclusions JE incidence showed significant spatial-temporal clustering during 2005-2019 in Gansu;high-incidence and case-reporting areas expanded. We should implement regional, focal, comprehensive strategies for JE prevention and control.