马铃薯甲虫在中国的适生区

Suitable area of Leptinotarsa decemlineata(Coleoptera:Chrysomelidae)in China

马铃薯甲虫是一种外来的有害生物,已在新疆、黑龙江等地建立种群,危害马铃薯、番茄等农作物,危害范围在中国逐年蔓延扩大。预测马铃薯甲虫在中国的适生区,有利于制定该虫的早期监测预警及控制。根据马铃薯甲虫现有的分布记录,筛选出主要的环境变量,采用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对其在中国的潜在分布区进行预测和分析。结果表明:用主成分分析法、相关性检验结合刀切法筛选出7个主要环境变量,MaxEnt模型模拟的AUC值为0.917,预测结果与实际拟合度非常高;ArcGIS软件中重分类方法计算出马铃薯甲虫当代适生区总面积为3.72×10^6km^2,占中国国土面积的38.67%;高适生区仅占中国国土面积的0.08%,主要位于内蒙古自治区包头市和呼和浩特市辖区;中适生区面积为1.26×10^6km^2,占中国国土面积的13.07%,包括黑龙江、辽宁和河北的东部,四川的西部,甘肃的西南部,河南的西北部,山西的南部,新疆的北部,江苏、湖北、贵州和安徽的中部地区,山东广大地区以及内蒙古包头市周边;低适生区面积为2.45×10^6km^2,占中国国土面积的25.52%,主要分布在内蒙古中部、新疆北部、东北东部、华北、华中和华南的广大地区;年平均温度、最冷月最低温度和最干季度降水量是影响马铃薯甲虫适生区分布的最主要环境变量。

Leptinotarsa decemlineata,an alien pest,has established populations in places such as Xinjiang and Heilongjiang,destroying crops such as potatoes and tomatoes,with an annually expanding distribution in China.Predicting the suitable area of L.decemlineata is conducive to early monitoring,warning,and controlling this pest in China.According to the existing distribution records of L.decemlineata and main environmental variables,potential geographic distributions of L.decemlineata in China were predicted and analyzed using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS.Seven major environmental variables were selected by the methods of principal components analysis,correlation test,and Jackknife test.AUC value was 0.917 by the MaxEnt model,with high fitness between the predicted results and the actual values.According to the reclassification method in ArcGIS,the total area of the contemporary suitable area of L.decemlineata was 3.72×10^6 km^2,accounting for 38.67%of total land area of China.Highly suitable area covered only 0.08%of land area in China,mainly located in Baotou and Hohhot in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Moderately suitable area was 1.26×10^6 km^2 and accounted for 13.07%of total land area of China,which included eastern parts of Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Hebei,western Sichuan,southwestern Gansu,northwestern Henan,southern Shanxi,northern Xinjiang,central parts of Jiangsu,Hubei,Guizhou and Anhui,vast areas of Shandong,and surrounding places of Baotou,Inner Mongolia.Lowly suitable area was 2.45×10^6 km^2 and accounted for 25.52%of China’s land area,which mainly distributed in the vast areas of central Inner Mongolia,northern Xin-jiang,eastern Northeast China,Northern China,Central China and Southern China.Mean annual temperature,the lowest temperature in the coldest month,and the precipitation of the driest quarter were the most important environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable area of L.decemlineata.