CZ-2C火箭子级残骸实时落点偏差分析

Analysis on Real-time Impact Point Calculation Method of CZ-2C Rocket Residues

文章针对快速搜索CZ-2C火箭子级残骸问题,研究了残骸陨落飞行规律和落点散布规律,建立了一种考虑轨道摄动的高精度陨落弹道计算分析方法。该方法采用J2000惯性系动力学模型描述陨落过程,通过单点积分的方式预报落点。考虑到积分初值中速度偏差对落点的影响,通过多次同型号火箭的历史数据分析,估计分离时刻分离速度偏差,进而提高预报落点精度。同时设计了一种基于无味变换采样仿真技术的落点偏差计算方法,能够计算各个子级落点分布范围。通过实测的历史数据分析,该方法能准确预报火箭一子级落点及散布范围,具有工程应用价值。

In order to quickly search the debris of CZ-2C rocket residues,the flight rule and impact point rule of debris were studied.In this paper,a high precision method for calculating and analyzing falling trajectory considering orbital perturbation is established.The J2000 inertial system dynamics model is used to describe the fall process and predicts the impact point by method of single point integration.Considering the influence of the speed deviation on the position of the impact point in the initial value of the integral,this paper analyzes the data of the same type of rocket in multiple missions,and estimates the separation speed deviation at the separation time,which improves the accuracy of the predicting impact point.At the same time,unscented sampling points function is applied to obtain the mean and variance of the impact point.By comparing with the mission data,the distribution range of the impact point can be obtained.The accuracy of the impact point prediction of the same type rocket has greatly improved.It has a higher engineering application value.