美国紧缩性货币政策对中国省域经济的溢出效应及其影响因素分析——基于VARX模型的实证研究

The Spillover Effect of US Tightening Monetary Policy on China's Provincial Economy and Its Influencing Factors——Empirical Test Based on VARX Model

文章根据现有文献,选取2013年12月到2018年12月区域宏观经济变量的月度数据,构建VARX模型,实证分析美国货币政策调整对中国及其各省经济的溢出效应,并通过构建多元回归模型,分析各省的贸易金融开放度、金融发展程度以及产业结构对溢出效应的影响。实证结果表明:美国紧缩性货币政策对中国经济产生了一定程度的负面冲击。其中,西部地区的一些省份受到的负面冲击较大。贸易开放度较高的省份,经济呈现出较小的负面响应;金融开放度较高的省份,经济呈现出较大的负面响应。面对美国紧缩性货币政策的影响,中国应采取区域化政策,加大对西部落后地区的扶持力度,刺激当地经济增长;合理运用各种货币政策工具,减少金融开放度较高省份的流动性短期波动;进一步积极推动“一带一路”的建设,加快对外经济开放度,完善对外贸易结构性改革。

Based on the monthly data of regional macroeconomic variables from December 2013 to December 2018,this paper constructs the VARX model to empirically analyzes the spillover effect of US monetary policy adjustment on China's provincial economy,and analyzes the impact of trade and financial openness,financial development degree and industrial structure on the spillover effect by constructing a multiple regression model.The empirical results show that the US tightening monetary policy has a certain degree of negative impact on China's economy.Among them,some provinces in the western region have been greatly affected.On the other hand,the higher the degree of trade openness,the less negative economic response;the higher the degree of financial openness,the greater the negative economic response.In the face of the impact of us tightening monetary policy,China should adopt the regional policy,increasing the support to the backward regions and stimulating the local economic growth.We should make rational use of various monetary policy tools to reduce the short-term fluctuation of liquidity in provinces with high financial openness.We should further improve the open policy,take an active part in Belt and Road Initiative,and promote structural reform in foreign trade.