应用捕获-再捕获方法评估沂源县居民死因登记漏报水平及报告质量评价

Application on capture-mark-recapture method to evaluate the level and quality of missing report of death cause registration among residents,Yiyuan county

目的应用捕获-再捕获方法(capture-mark-recapture,CMR)评价沂源县死因监测工作中死亡病例的漏报情况,为制定卫生策略提供依据。方法采用随机整群抽样方法从与全县粗死亡率最接近的3个乡镇中选取1个乡镇(街道),抽中乡镇(街道)中所有的家庭均为调查家庭。通过从当地公安、民政和村(居委会)搜集人口死亡情况,通过入户调查方法获得2015~2017年居民死亡数据,再与死因登记系统已报告的2015~2017年死亡资料进行比对,计算漏报率。结果漏报调查共收集到691个死亡案例,其中漏报28例。CMR法估算死亡案例为728例,3年合计漏报率为8.15%,3年合计漏报率差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。男性平均漏报率(8.74%),高于女性(7.38%)(P>0.05)。结论沂源县死因监测漏报率低,编码错误率低,死因数据完整性、准确性较好。

Objective To evaluate the missing report of death cases in the monitoring of death causes in Yiyuan County by using method of capture-mark-recapture(CMR),so as to provide the basis for making health strategies.Methods Random cluster sampling was used to select 1 township(street)from the 3 townships closest to the crude mortality of the whole county.All the families in the selected townships(streets)were investigated.Through the collection of population death from local public security,civil affairs and village(neighborhood committee),the data of resident death in 2015-2017 were obtained through household survey,and then compared with the data of death in 2015-2017 reported by the death cause registration system to calculate the rate of missing report.Results A total of 691 death cases were collected,28 of which were not reported.There were 728 cases of death estimated by CMR method,the total rate of missing report in 3 years was 8.15%,and the difference of the total rate of missing report in 3 years was statistically significant(P<0.01).The average missing report rate of male(8.74%)was higher than it of female(7.38%)(P>0.05).Conclusion The missing rate of death cause monitoring is low,the error rate of coding is low,and the data of death cause is complete and accurate.