青年流动人才空间分布及居留意愿影响因素——基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据

Spatial Distribution of Floating Young Talents and Influencing Factors of Their Settlement Intention-Based on the Dynamic Monitoring Data of the National Floating Population in 2017

随着各地陆续颁布吸引人才的政策,青年人才流动问题受到越来越多的关注。文章基于2017年流动人口动态监测数据,综合运用ArcGIS和GeoDa的空间分析功能,结合二分类Logistic回归模型,对全国青年流动人才空间分布和居留意愿影响因素进行研究。结果发现:①青年流动人才的净迁移率呈现出"中部低、周围高"的空间格局,人口密度曲线呈现东高西低,南北较小幅度的倒"U"型趋势。②从空间集聚度来看,青年流动人才净迁移率分布呈现出明显的空间集聚特征,东部沿海省份和西部地区的新疆、西藏青年人才净迁移率相对较高,呈现出高高聚集特点,中部地区净迁移率相对较低,呈现出低低聚集特点。③青年流动人才的个体因素对居留意愿影响显著,女性居留意愿高于男性;年龄段最小的青年人才居留意愿最低;随着学历的提高,居留意愿增强。家庭因素中,配偶户籍地为流入地本地的青年人才居留意愿最高。经济因素中,随着住房支出增加,青年人才的居留意愿提升。社会因素方面,专业技术人员及办事人员居留意愿最强烈。各地在制定人才吸引政策时应充分考虑青年流动人才居留意愿影响因素。

With the successive promulgation of policies attracting talents, more and more attention has been paid to the flow of young talents. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the floating population in 2017, this study applies the spatial analysis of ArcGIS and Geoda, and the binary logistic regression model to explore the spatial distribution of the flow of young talents and the influencing factors of their settlement intention in China. The results show that: 1) The net migration rate of young talents presents a spatial pattern which is low in the middle and high in the surrounding areas, and the population density curve shows the trend of "higher in the East and lower in the West" and a small inverted U-shaped trend in the North and the South. 2) From the perspective of spatial agglomeration, it exhibits the characteristics of obvious spatial agglomeration on the distribution of net migration rate of young talents. The net migration rate of young talents is relatively high in eastern coastal provinces, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Tibet Autonomous Region( showing the characteristics of high-high aggregation) and relatively low in central China( showing the characteristics of low-low aggregation). 3)The individual factors of young talents have a significant impact on the willingness of settlement, settlement willingness of women is higher than that of men;the youngest talents have the lowest willingness to stay;the higher academic qualifications, the stronger willingness to stay. Among family factors, young talents whose spouse’s domicile is the place of inflow have the highest willingness to settle. Among economic factors, with the increasement in housing expenditure, the settlement willingness of young talents will be stronger. In terms of social factors, professional and technical talents and clerks have the strongest willingness to stay. Formulating policies for attracting talents should fully consider factors affecting young talents’ settlement willingness.