互联网普及与国际贸易——基于出口方视角的研究

Internet Penetration and International Trade:A Research From the Perspective of Exporters

文章选取69个经济体作为样本,利用中介效应模型Bootstrap法、随机前沿分析、动态因子分析等方法对双边贸易中出口方互联网普及与制造业产品贸易的关系进行研究。结果表明,出口方互联网普及率越高,制造业产品贸易规模越大,且对于技术密集型产品、资本密集型产品、中级技术产品、高新技术产品、化学制品及相关产品以及机械及交通设备等产品来说,两者的关系更加显著。出口方互联网普及可通过提升生产效率、贸易便利化程度、贸易效率、扩大贸易市场规模以及降低贸易多边阻力扩大制造业产品贸易规模。上述结论在考虑零贸易值、异质性、指标测度、时滞因素、贸易惯性以及内生性等因素后依然稳健。

Based on Bootstrap method,stochastic frontier analysis,dynamic factor analysis and other methods,this paper selects 69 economies as samples and studies the relationship between internet penetration of the exporters and trade in manufacturing products in bilateral trade.The results show that the higher the internet penetration rate of the exporters,the larger the scale of trade in manufacturing products.Besides,the relationship between the two is more significant for technology-intensive products,capital-intensive products,intermediate-level technical products,high-tech products,chemical products and related products as well as machinery and transportation equipment.The internet penetration of the exporters can expand the trade scale of manufacturing products through improving production efficiency,trade facilitation and trade efficiency,expanding trade market scale and reducing multilateral trade resistance.The above conclusions are still robust after considering the factors including zero trade value,heterogeneity,index measurement,time lag,trade inertia and endogenousness.