基于空间视角的中国制造业OFDI的东道国影响因素实证研究——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

An Empirical Study on the Host Country's Influencing Factors of China Manufacturing Industry's OFDI Based on the Spatial Perspective:Taking Countries Along the"Belt and Road"as An Example

本文利用2003-2017年中国制造业对60个“一带一路”沿线国家的OFDI(对外直接投资)数据,采用空间计量模型实证分析了中国制造业对沿线国家OFDI的空间效应及东道国影响因素。研究表明:中国制造业对沿线国家OFDI的空间效应显著,“第三国”不可观测因素显著正向影响中国制造业OFDI;东道国市场规模、对外开放程度、劳动力总量、资源禀赋和技术水平以及是否与我国签订投资协定、是否与我国相邻、是否加入上海合作组织、是否与我国语言相同等因素是影响中国制造业OFDI的重要因素;在分组检验中,中国制造业对不同收入水平沿线国家OFDI的空间效应及东道国因素影响的程度和效果均存在差异。本研究结论对中国制造业在沿线国家开展OFDI以促进其转型升级和高质量发展具有重要的政策含义。

This paper adopts the data of China manufacturing industry’s OFDI in 60 countries along the ’Belt and Road’’( B&R) from 2003 to 2017,and empirically analyze the spatial effect of China manufacturing industry’s OFDI and the host country’s influencing factors by using the spatial econometric model. This study finds that China manufacturing industry’s OFDI has significant spatial effect in B&R countries,and the unobservable factors of " third country" have significant positive effect on China manufacturing industry’s OFDI. The market scale,openness degree,total labor force,resources endowment and technology level of host country and the factors of whether to sign investment agreement with China,whether it is adjacent to China,whether it has joined the Shanghai cooperation organization,and whether it has the same language with China are important factors affecting China manufacturing industry’s OFDI. In the grouping test,there are differences in the spatial effect of China manufacturing industry’s OFDI in B&R countries with different income levels.And the host country factors of B&R countries with different income levels also have different impacts on China manufacturing industry’s OFDI. The conclusions of this paper have key policy for China manufacturing industry to carry out OFDI to promote transformation,upgrading and high-quality development of manufacturing industry in B&R countries.