交通基础设施、制造业资本规模与区域经济增长

Transportation Infrastructure,Manufacturing Capital Scale and Regional Economic Growth

本文基于发展经济学MSV理论,利用2000-2017年30个省级面板数据构建门槛回归模型,检验政府在协调全社会资本用于投资交通基础设施中的作用,探讨交通基础设施如何实现工业化由低水平均衡向高水平均衡转换,进而提高制造业对地区经济增长的拉动作用。文章发现,现阶段交通基础设施并不是直接拉动经济增长的引擎,工业化进程中,制造业发展是拉动经济增长有力的工具,且存在明显的交通基础设施门槛效应。文章认为此现象得益于交通基础设施本身所具有的正外部性,其为工业化多重均衡的存在提供了可能。因此本文建议应重视政府在协调交通基础设施投资中的作用,以工业化水平提高为目标,提升制造业对地区经济的拉动作用。

Based on the MSV theory of development economics,this paper uses 30 provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017 to construct a threshold regression model to test the role of the government in coordinating the use of social capital for investment in transportation infrastructure.And explore how transportation infrastructure can transform industrialization from a low-level equilibrium to a high-level equilibrium,thereby improve the role of manufacturing in boosting regional economic growth.The article found that transportation infrastructure at this stage is not the engine that directly drives economic growth.In the process of industrialization,the development of manufacturing industry is a powerful tool for driving economic growth,and there is a clear threshold effect of transportation infrastructure.The article believes that this phenomenon benefits from the positive externalities of the transportation infrastructure itself,which provides the possibility for the existence of multiple equilibriums in industrialization.Therefore,this article suggests that we should pay attention to the role of the government in coordinating transportation infrastructure investment,aim at improving the level of industrialization,and enhance the role of the manufacturing industry in boosting regional economies.