震后供水管网剩余能量熵的蒙特卡罗模拟分析

Monte Carlo simulation analysis on surplus power entropy of water supply network after earthquake

为评估震后供水管网可靠性,采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟地震灾害,应用压力驱动节点配水量方法分析震后管网水力,计算震后供水管网的剩余能量熵;通过计算剩余能量熵,得到节点及管网剩余能量熵数据统计曲线、流量熵与剩余能量熵的对比情况以及不同烈度剩余能量熵在管网中的分布情况,从数据分析中研究剩余能量熵影响因素。研究结果表明:基于蒙特卡罗模拟的震后供水管网节点的剩余能量熵在3000次模拟后基本达到稳定,其值取决于水源点到节点的供水路径以及剩余能量因子在不同路径分配的均匀程度。

In order to evaluate reliability of post-earthquake water supply network,earthquake disaster was simulated by using Monte Carlo method,and hydraulic analysis of pipe network was conducted by pressure-driven distribution method.Then,surplus power entropy of the network was calculated from which statistical curve of surplus power entropy data of nodes and pipe networks,comparison of flow entropy and surplus power entropy,and surplus power entropy distribution of different intensities were obtained.Finally,factors that influenced surplus power entropy were studied building on data analysis.The results show that surplus power entropy of network nodes based on Monte Carlo simulation is basically stable after3000 simulations,and its value depends on water supply path from source points to nodes and distribution uniformity of surplus power factors in different paths.