基于多目标规划的乡村旅游客流需求预测模型研究

A Forecast Model of Rural Tourists’ Demands Based on Multi-objective Planning

为提高乡村旅游资源的使用合理性以及乡村旅游区域的服务能力和管理能力,提出基于多目标规划的乡村旅游客流需求预测模型。由于乡村客流需求会受到很多因素影响,导致最终的预测结果出现较大偏差,采用灰色关联分析法筛选客流影响因素,将与预测目标影响因素关联度最大的指标作为预测指标,建立乡村旅游客流需求预测模型,并利用线性加权法通过将多目标函数转化为单目标函数方式获取乡村旅游客流需求预测结果。测试分析结果显示,该模型具备乡村旅游客流需求区间预测的可行性,且可实现全天不同时间段内客流数量的预测,预测结果与实际结果误差极小。

In order to increase the use of rural tourism resources and improve the service and management capacity of rural tourism areas, a forecast model of rural tourists’ demands is proposed that is based on multi-objective planning. Considering the great deviation often occurring in the forecast of rural tourists’ demands, which are affected by many factors, Grey correlation analysis method is adopted to sift out from the influencing factors the most correlated with the forecast objectives. These sifted factors are selected as the forecasting indexes to establish the forecast model and the multi-objective functions are transformed into a single objective function by the linear weighting method to obtain the forecast results. The test results show that the model is feasible for the interval forecast of rural tourists’ demands, and can forecast the number of tourists in different time periods of the whole day. The error between the forecast and the actual results is very small.