特大城市科技创新发展对人口集聚的影响——来自北京的证据

The Impact of Technological Innovation Development in Megacities on Population Agglomeration: Evidence from Beijing

建设科技创新中心和控制人口规模是北京城市发展的两大重要目标。基于收入效应和替代效应理论,利用北京市2006—2017年16个区的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型、工具变量以及两阶段最小二乘等方法对北京市科技创新发展与人口规模之间的关系进行理论和实证分析。研究表明,北京市科技创新发展对人口的集聚起着正向的促进作用,科技创新发展促使了产业扩张,加大了劳动力市场的用工需求,对就业人口、常住人口、外来人口和户籍人口的促进作用都较为显著,从而使得城市人口快速增长。

Building a science and technology innovation center and controlling population size are two important goals of Beijing.Based on the income effect and substitution effect theory,this paper uses the panel data of 16 districts in Beijing from 2006 to 2017,the two-way fixed effect model and two-stage least squares method to analyze the relationship between Beijing’s scientific and technological innovation development and population size.The empirical research shows that the development of science and technology innovation in Beijing has played a positive role in promoting the population agglomeration,it promotes the expansion of the industry,which in turn increases the market demand for labor,especially for the resident population,the employed population,the foreign population or the registered population,thus brings the rapid growth of the urban population.