基于技术系统进化定律和情景分析的产品技术预见方法

Technology foresight of products based on the technical-system evolution law and the scenario analysis

技术预见有助于引导产品技术发展的方向,合理的技术预见能够帮助产品实现快速技术转型,从而尽可能早的占领市场。技术预见方法是通过对系统建立功能模型,分析系统中存在的不足、有害和过剩作用,以这些缺陷作用为切入点,构建启发式问题情景分析过程,并结合技术系统进化定律构建虚拟使用情景,通过问题情景、虚拟使用情景之间的转化关系,提出产品技术从当前到未来之间的映射方法。运用资源分析对预见的技术进行评价,并输出系统未来技术的发展顺序。最后,以桥梁贴片机为例展开技术预见,有利于该产品的技术在未来得到开发和应用。

Technology foresight of products helps guide the direction of technical development,and reasonable technology foresight ensures the rapid technical transformation,so that the product will take the lead in the market as early as possible.Technology foresight is based on the system’s function model,as well as the analysis on the systematic defects,harmful parts and excess;with the focus on these defects,the heuristic scenario analysis is conducted in combination with the technical-system evolution law,in order to construct virtual scenarios of technical utilization;through the conversion relationship between the problem scenarios and the virtual scenarios of technical utilization,the method of technical mapping from the present to the future is put forward.Resource analysis is adopted to evaluate the predicted technologies and identify the development sequence of the system’s future technologies.Finally,the bridge placement machine is taken as an example for technology forecast,which is beneficial to the technical development and application in the future.