空调设计用同时发生室外气象参数生成模型优化

Model Optimization of Coincident Meteorological Parameters for Risk-based Air-conditioning Design

提出了不同不保证率下由室内峰值得热修正成峰值负荷的简便方法,为生成同时发生气象参数的负荷模型优化成得热模型提供了基本依据。该方法基于z传递函数法和辐射时间序列法分别计算室内峰值得热与峰值负荷,分析不同参数对峰值得热与峰值负荷之间“差异率”的影响大小,给出由室内峰值得热修正成峰值负荷的修正表和修正方法。基于蒙特卡洛法随机选取48万种参数组合对修正表进行验证。结果表明,在北方向、西南方向、西方向和西北方向上,全部组合的修正后“差异率”在±2%以内,修正后“差异率”在±1%以内的组合有99.5%;其他方向上,全部组合的修正后“差异率”在-2.5%~4%以内,修正后“差异率”在±1%以内的组合有97%。

A straightforward method was adopted to correct the indoor peak heat gain to the peak load under different non-guarantee rates,which provides an essential basis for the optimization of“load model”for generating coincident meteorological parameters to the“heat gain model”.With this method,the indoor peak heat gain and peak load were calculated separately based on the z-transfer function method and the radiant time series method,the influence of different parameters on the“difference rate”between the peak heat gain and peak load was analyzed,and the correction form and correction method for correcting indoor peak heat gain to peak load were given.480,000 parameter combinations were randomly selected based on the Monte Carlo method to verify the correction form.It can be concluded from the results that in the north,southwest,west and northwest directions,the corrected“difference rate”of all combinations is within±2%,among which 99.5%of the combinations are within±1%,while in other directions,the“difference rate”is within-2.5%~4%,and 97%of the combinations are within±1%.