我国对外直接投资如何影响出口增加值——基于我国-东道国(地区)产业结构差异的视角

How OFDI Influences Domestic Value Added in Export:Based on the Perspective of Industrial Structure Difference between China and Host Country/Region

本文从规模效应和结构效应两方面建立分析框架,探究母国与东道国的产业结构差异对对外直接投资(OFDI)的出口增加值效应的调节机制,并利用2007-2014年欧盟发布的世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)的世界投入产出表、中国对外投资企业名录等国家(地区)和企业层面数据,采用可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)和系统GMM估计方法进行实证分析。研究发现,OFDI对出口增加值有正向作用,随着我国与东道国(地区)产业结构差异的扩大,正向作用逐渐减小;OFDI通过规模效应和结构效应影响出口增加值;不同投资动机的OFDI对出口增加值的影响渠道以及我国与东道国(地区)的产业结构差异的调节作用存在差异。本文主要创新点在于提出并验证了东道国与母国的产业结构差异调节OFDI的出口增加值效应的机制框架,实证分析有效处理了内生性问题。本文研究为贯彻落实"走出去"战略和"一带一路"倡议提供经验证据支持,对强化OFDI顶层设计和布局具有重要意义。

This paper aims to answer how the difference in industrial structure between the home country and the host country influences the effect of OFDI on domestic value added in export( EVA) theoretically and empirically. By constructing a framework that analyzes this topic from production structure effect and export amount effect,this paper uses FGLS and system GMM method to study the effect of OFDI on EVA and the moderating effect of the industrial structure difference between China and host country/region based on countrylevel and enterprise-level data from WIOD and China OFDI Enterprise Register between 2007 and 2014. The result shows that OFDI has a creation effect on EVA through two channels,namely export amount effect and production structure effect;with the increase of the difference in industrial structure,OFDI’s creating effect on EVA decreases;OFDIs with different motivations have different impacts on EVA and the moderating effects of the industrial structure difference are also different. The main innovation in this paper is presenting a framework to analyze the effect of OFDI on EVA from the perspective of the difference in industrial structure between China and the host countries/regions and dealing with the endogenous problem effectively. This paper provides empirical evidence to support the implementation of the"Going-Out"strategy and"Belt and Road"Initiative,and it is significant to strengthen the top-level design of OFDI.