中国农业化肥施用技术效率演变特征及影响因素

Characteristics of change and influencing factors of the technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer use for agricultural production in China

中国化肥不合理的施用和农业绿色发展之间的矛盾越来越突出,探索农业生产过程中化肥施用技术效率的演变及影响因素,对于推动农业绿色发展、实施乡村振兴具有重要的现实意义。本文以1991—2017年28个省(市、区)的省级面板数据为研究对象,采用随机前沿分析方法对各省(市、区)的化肥施用技术效率测算。发现:①过去近30年里中国农业化肥施用技术效率呈现出不断增长的态势,2015—2017年各地区的化肥施用技术效率的均值要明显高于1998—2014年间以及1991—1997年间的效率均值;从区域差异来看,东部地区的化肥施用技术效率要明显高于西部和中部地区;②通过Moran’s I指数分析发现,中国各省市化肥施用技术效率存在空间相关关系,且随着时间的推移,这种空间相关关系越来越强烈;③运用空间杜宾模型分析化肥施用技术效率的影响因素发现,劳动力非农就业比重对化肥施用技术效率产生了显著的负向影响,收入水平产生了正向的溢出效应,而城镇化率则产生了负向的溢出效应。未来,各地区在化肥施用的过程中,不仅要关注本地区的化肥施用情况,更应加强地区间的合作、交流,以促进化肥施用技术效率的共同提升。

Using the provincial panel data from 1991 to 2017 and the stochastic frontier analysis(SFA)method,this study measured the technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer application in 28 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China.The study found that the technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer use for agricultural production in China had shown a growing trend in the study period.The average technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer application in all regions from 2015 to 2017 was significantly higher than that of 1998-2014 and 1991-1997.The technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer application in the eastern region was significantly higher than that in the western and central regions;Using Moran’s I index analysis,we also found that there is a spatial correlation between the technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer application in various provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China.In addition,this spatial correlation is becoming increasingly more significant over time.Finally,we used the spatial Dubin model to analyze the influencing factors of the technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer application the results show that the proportion of labor non-agricultural employment has a significant negative impact on the technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer application.The level of farmers’income has a positive spillover effect,while the urbanization rate has a negative spillover effect.In the future,in the process of agricultural production,all regions should not only pay attention to the development within the region,but also strengthen interregional cooperation and exchanges.