基于改进MGM的省级用电量中长期预测

Medium and Long-term Forecast of Provincial Electricity Consumption Based on Improved MGM

当前中国用电环境随全球经济呈非线性、非规律性波动。以往所用电量中长期预测方法难以适应现在的精准规划要求,无论是传统GM(1,1)还是MGM(1,n),由于其自然属性,已经不再适应当前的新规律。基于某省级电网不同产业全社会用电总量及GDP变化趋势,分析了数据间的逻辑关系及变化规律。通过构造与当前变化相适应的背景优化函数,对MGM进行相关改进,以满足当前精准规划的用电量预测要求。预测了某省2010—2018年的全社会用电总量,预测结果可靠性高,预测精度满足当前规划需要。

The current electricity consumption environment in China fluctuates nonlinearly and irregularly with the global economy,and the medium and long-term forecast method of electricity consumption used before is difficult to meet the current precise planning requirements,both the traditional grey model( GM)( 1,1) and multivariable grey model( MGM)( 1,n) are no longer adapted to the current new laws due to their natural properties. Based on the total power consumption and GDP change trend of different industries in a provincial power grid,the logical relationship and change rules between the data are analyzed,and a background optimization function that is compatible with the current changes is constructed to improve the MGM to meet the current precise planning requirements of electricity demand forecast. The total electricity consumption of the whole society in a province from 2010 to 2018 is predicted,the prediction results are highly reliable and the prediction accuracy meets the current planning needs.