福建对“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易潜力——基于HS产业分类的实证研究

The Trade Potential of Fujian for the Countries along the Belt and Road

作为海丝起点的福建是“一带一路”倡议实施的核心区之一,全面评估其对“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易效率与贸易潜力有利于对外贸易实现高质量发展。按照HS二分位产业分类标准,采用随机前沿引力模型测算2009—2017年福建各产业对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口贸易潜力,并利用一步法分析其影响因素。研究发现,福建各产业对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口仍具有很大潜力,但福建对“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易非效率呈增长趋势。其中东盟国家、吉尔吉斯斯坦、阿联酋和约旦分别是福建对东南亚、中亚、西亚区域的重要伙伴国;电机、机器和机械器具、服装和鞋靴、石料等产业在福建对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口中效率较高。为进一步提高贸易潜力,应考虑贸易区域多元化,产业类别多样化,推动建设良好的营商环境,培育对外贸易竞争新优势。

Fujian,as the starting point of the Marine Silk Road,is one of the core areas for the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative.A comprehensive assessment of its trade efficiency and trade potential for countries along the Belt and Road is conducive to the high-quality development of foreign trade.According to the Harmonized System(HS)-2 code,the stochastic frontier gravity model was used to estimate the export trade potential of Fujian industries for the countries along the Belt and Road from 2009 to 2017,and the one-step method was used to analyze its influencing factors.It is found that the export of Fujian industries to those countries still has great potential,but the trade non-efficiency shows a growing trend.Among them,ASEAN countries,Kyrgyzstan,UAE and Jordan are important partners of Fujian to Southeast Asia,Central Asia and West Asia respectively.Besides,the export efficiency of electrical machinery and machinery appliances,clothing and shoes and stone products in Fujian to those countries is relatively high.In order to further improve trade efficiency,the diversification of trade industry categories and trade partners should be considered,a sound business environment built,and new advantages in foreign trade competition cultivated.