基于现场数据的城轨计轴设备可靠性评估

Reliability assessment of axle counting equipment for urban rail based on field data

当前多个城市的城轨线路中计轴故障频发,已成为影响信号系统可用性,造成运营延误的重要问题.结合机理模型和统计模型,以计轴设备的真实现场数据为输入,通过极大似然估计和A-D检验、K-S检验确定计轴失效率的概率分布,推导出设备当前的可靠性特征和变化趋势.以宁波某地铁线路为案例展示分析过程.分析结果与实际运营情况保持了很好的一致性,证明了方法的有效性.同时通过实际统计特征与预期统计特征的差异推断出计轴故障频发的原因,提出了维护管理建议.

The frequent occurrence of axle counting faults in urban rail lines in many cities has become an important issue affecting the availability of signal systems and causing operational delays.Combining with the mechanism model and the statistical model,the probability distribution of axle counting failure rate is determined by the maximum likelihood estimation,A-D test and K-S test with the real field data of the axle counting equipment as input,and the current reliability characteristics and variation trend of the equipment are deduced.This paper takes a metro line in Ningbo as a case to demonstrate the analysis process.The analysis results are in good agreement with the actual operating conditions and prove the effectiveness of the method.Furthermore,the main reasons which cause failure of axle counting are deduced from the difference between the actual statistical characteristics and the expected statistical characteristics,and maintenance management suggestions are put forward.