某猪场母猪繁殖性能预测和logistic回归分析

Prediction of sow reproductive performance and logistic regression analysis in a pig farm

为了衡量猪场生产效率,研究根据某公司7个分场繁殖母猪2016—2019年的生产记录,运用时间序列分析预测母猪繁殖性能的未来短期趋势,发现母猪未来一段时间的生产性能不会出现较大变动,与实际值较吻合,说明时间序列对母猪繁殖性能方面的预测,有较强的实用价值;再通过建立logistic回归模型,进行模型分析以寻找影响母猪繁殖性能的关键因素,进一步确定胎次是影响母猪繁殖性能重要因素。并且该模型还可用于其他生产指标的因素分析,可以为提高母猪群繁殖性能提供科学依据。

In order to measure the production effi ciency of pig farms,in this study we used time series analysis to predict the future short-term trend of sow reproductive performance based on the production records of 7 sow breeding farms of a company from 2016 to 2019,and found that the production performance of sows in the future period of time would not show large changes,which was consistent with the actual value,indicating that time series had a strong practical value in the prediction of sow reproductive performance;and then the logistic regression model was developed and analyzed to fi nd out the key factors aff ecting the reproductive performance of sows,and it was further confi rmed that the parity is an important factor aff ecting reproductive performance.The model can also be used for factor analysis of other production indexes to provide scientifi c basis for improving the reproductive performance of sow herd.